(Taken from John Piper, The Justification of God: An Exegetical and Theological Study of Romans 9:1-23 [Baker Books, Grand Rapids: 1993, pgs. 75-89]
"What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? God forbid. For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion. So then it is not of him that willeth, nor of him that runneth, but of God that sheweth mercy." (Rom. 9:14-16)
In verse 15, the apostle Paul quotes from Exodus 33:19, the immediate OT context of which is as follows:
"And the Lord said unto Moses, I will do this thing also that thou hast spoken: for thou hast found grace in my sight, and I know thee by name. And he said, I beseech thee, shew me thy glory. And he said, I will make all my goodness pass before thee, and I will proclaim the name of the Lord before thee; and will be gracious to whom I will be gracious, and will shew mercy on whom I will shew mercy." (Exodus 33:17-19)
The Context of Exodus 32-34
"First of all, the chapters have been placed within an obvious theological framework of sin and forgiveness. Chapter 32 recounts the breaking of the covenant [the golden calf incident]' Chapter 34 relates its restoration. Moreover, these chapters are held together by a series of motifs which are skillfully woven into a unifying pattern. The tablets [of the ten commandments] are received, smashed in chapter 32, recut, and restored in chapter 34. Moses' intercession for Israel begins in chapter 32, continues in chapter 33, and comes to a climax in chapter 34 [verses 9-10]. The theme of the presence of God which is the central theme of chapter 33 joins, on the one hand, to the prior theme of disobedience in chapter 32, and, on the other hand, to the assurance of forgiveness in chapter 34 [verses 6 and 9]." (Brevard Childs, The Book of Exodus: A Critical-Theological Commentary, pg. 557ff)
The Context of Exodus 33:12-34:9
There are two themes in this section. One is Moses' plea to God that He would go with Israel to the promised land in Israel's midst (33:12b-13, 15-16). The other theme is when Moses prayers to know God's character and to see His glory (33:13-18), the latter of which is answered in 33:19 and 34:6-7. Moses asked that God would show mercy to a "stiff-necked people" (33:5). This seeming presumption and boldness of Moses' request is what grounds his desire to see the glory of God (33:13, 18). This desire of Moses to see and know God's glory is understood as Moses' desire to see a confirmation of the willingness of God to show mercy upon the idolatrous Israelites. Thus, these two themes (God's mercy to Israel and God's personal revelation of Himself to Moses) are closely related to one another.
The Vocabulary and Grammar of Exodus 33:19b
The important thing to understand of Ex. 33:19b ("I will be gracious to whom I will be gracious, and will shew mercy on whom I will shew mercy") is an example of a Hebrew tautology-expression known as the idem per idem. Other examples of this are seen in Scripture (the following are more literal renderings of the Hebrew text):
"I pray, Lord, send now by the hand you will send." (Exodus 4:13)
"Bake what you will bake, boil what you will boil." (Exodus 16:23)
"They went about where they went about." (1 Samuel 23:13)
"Shall I make you go with us while I go where I go." (2 Samuel 15:20)
"Sojourn where you sojourn" (2 Kings 8:1)
The reason why this idiom is used is to reinforce the freedom of the subject to perform an action in the way they please. So when God says "I will be merciful to whom I will be merciful", it is for the purpose of stressing His freedom and sovereignty in the choice of who He will show mercy towards, and whom He will be gracious towards.
Throughout Scripture, there is a parallel and close relationship between grace and mercy (Ex. 34:6; Joel 2:13; Psalm 86:15; 111:4; 2 Kings 13:23; Isaiah 27:11; 30:18), so we shouldn't see too much distinction here between these two concepts in Ex. 33:19b.
Some have noted the use of the verb racham ("to show mercy") in Lamentations 3:32 and Isaiah 54:8-10 as expressing the idea that God's covenant with His people is the formal grounds for His bestowal of mercy. According to this view, God's chesed (loving kindness or covenant faithfulness, as some interpret the word) is the primary reason why He shows mercy.
Deuteronomy 7:7-9 seems to go against such a conclusion: "It was not because you were more in number than any other people that the Lord set his love on you and chose you, for you were the fewest of all peoples, but it is because the Lord loves you and is keeping the oath that he swore to your fathers, that the Lord has brought you out with a mighty hand and redeemed you from the house of slavery, from the hand of Pharaoh king of Egypt. Know therefore that the Lord your God is God, the faithful God who keeps covenant and steadfast love with those who love him and keep his commandments, to a thousand generations."
Here, the Old Covenant itself appears to be grounded in God's action primarily, and thus in the freedom of God.
The Glory and Name of the LORD in Relation to Ex. 33:19b
We now come to examine the relationship of Ex. 33:19b with 18-19a: "And he said, I beseech thee, shew me thy glory. And he said, I will make all my goodness pass before thee, and I will proclaim the name of the Lord before thee; and will be gracious to whom I will be gracious, and will shew mercy on whom I will shew mercy."
It is my contention that verse 19b ("I will be gracious to whom I will be gracious....") does not ground the revelation of God's name and glory, but rather is itself the revelation of God's glory and name. I base this on two arguments:
1) There is a similarity in the idem per idem here in Ex. 33 and this same formula as found in Ex. 3:14, where the name of the LORD is revealed to Moses at the burning bush.
2) This same pair of words ("be gracious" and "show mercy") is also found in Exodus 34:6-7, which is undoubtedly an explication of God's nature and character, but also is similar in its language and meaning to Ex. 33:19 as a whole (Abasciano admits the parallel between the two passages, Paul's Use of the Old Testament in Rom. 9.10-18: An Intertextual and Theological Exegesis, pg. 141). The indefiniteness (similar to the idem per idem here) which is used in Ex. 33:19 is also seen when we compare 34:6-7 and 20:5-6.
The similarities here are quite clear. What is also important (and particularly interesting) is the fact that the phrases "those who hate me" and "those who love me and keep my commandments" are removed in Ex. 34:6-7. When the character of God in showing mercy is revealed to Moses in that passage, the character of the objects of God's mercy/wrath is entirely omitted.
These arguments show that Exodus 33:19 (and obviously 34:6-7 as well) functions itself as the revelation of God's glory and name to Moses, rather than being the ground for that revelation.
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